Those who has to http://www.pixelsplasher.com/_knowledgebase/How.To.Manually.Update.Kaspersky.Internet.Security.or.Antivirus/ Kaspersky Internet Security or Antivirus will wonder how big can the accumulative database update zip file reach in the future? It used to be just around 7 MB at KAV version 5. Now it's around 19 MB.
I guess you need to be asking those that create the malware. While we are in a world using definitions to help keep known malware at bay, it will not stop growing.
Maybe in a years time it will becaome 50MB or even 100MB.
It indeed depends on the malware writers
you have to remember that a database isn't just a book with signatures for malware, it also holds algorithms for packers (some are modules of the program eg zip but some are built in to the engine, for example a lot of runtime packers), the more packers the bigger the database, then there's disinfection algorithms, generic signatures, some heuristics (v7 has a new heuristics engine which is a separate module, ~1MB on it's own), web anti-virus streaming signatures (didn't exist in v5), registry monitor keys etc.
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